$ALM

The market is pricing Almonty as a volatile, price-taking miner. It trades near $12, against a 52-week high of $24.41 set on April 17, 2026. Goldman initiated at Neutral with a $13 target, arguing that strong tungsten prices and a fast ramp are already priced in. The long case rests on supply security. China controls most mine output and, per Reuters (Apr 2026), restricted 2026-27 exports to 15 approved firms. The US has no active commercial tungsten mines. Almonty is one of the few scalable producers outside China, and its offtake with Global Tungsten & Powders was extended by six years with 40% more contracted volume and about 6.3% better pricing (per Q2 release). Q2 2026 (reported Aug 11, in C$) showed revenue up 498% to C$43.0M and Adjusted EBITDA of C$17.6M, versus a loss a year ago. Net income of C$181.8M is flattered by C$173.1M of non-cash derivative gains, so Adjusted EBITDA is the cleaner read. The company holds about C$1.2B of cash after an US$800M convertible, and has announced a buyback of up to $300M. Sangdong received its final operating certificates on Sept 21 and is moving into commercial production. Phase II is targeted for 2027, with capacity of up to 1.2M tonnes of ore a year. Five analysts' targets average about $24 (per Google Finance, late Sep), roughly double the current price. For the case to work, three things have to hold. Chinese export curbs must stay in place. Western APT must stay near current levels, around US$3,075/mtu in late July per Fastmarkets-linked data. Sangdong must ramp on schedule.