JPM is compounding revenue across NII, investment banking and markets while card credit costs improve, and it holds excess capital to return. At roughly 14x trailing earnings, the shares sit about 10% below the Street's average target and below the August high.
JPMorgan Chase is a leading global financial-services firm with operations in 66 countries and nearly 323,000 employees as of September 2026. Under the JPMorgan brands, the bank holding company boasts a $5.1 trillion balance sheet and $2.78 trillion in deposits as of September 2026. The firm generates its revenue across three core operating segments:…
www.jpmorganchase.com- 1Q3 earnings on Oct 13, 2026: consensus is about $5.86 to $5.89 EPS on about $50.8B to $50.9B revenue, so watch IB fees and NII guidance.
- 2FY26 guidance updates at Q3 and the Q4 print (expected mid-January 2027, unconfirmed), especially NII ex-Markets and the card charge-off rate.
- 3Any Fed easing or a deployment of the excess capital through buybacks or acquisitions.
- 1Q2 may be a cyclical peak: equity markets revenue rose 86% and could normalize, and the bank flagged this as an elevated environment.
- 2Expenses are rising faster than revenue: Q2 adjusted expense was up 15%, and management acknowledged negative operating leverage year to date.
- 3No Fed cuts and sticky inflation (Iran war, energy prices) could pressure credit and loan demand later in a maturing cycle.
Read the Full Thesis
- Oct 13, 2026 · Price 333.92
Weekly check-in: Weakened. Q3 miss and halved buyback dent capital leg; NII and card credit hold Per the Q3 release, EPS was $5.57 (about $5.75 excluding a $658M securities loss) against consensus of roughly $5.86 to $5.94. Managed revenue was $50.9B, in line with the case's $50.8B to $50.9B, but reported revenue was $50.2B. The NII and card-credit legs held up: the FY26 NII guide rose and the card charge-off guide stayed near 3.2%. Two other legs weakened. Expenses grew 12% against revenue growth of 8%, and management cut buybacks to prioritize organic growth, which undercuts the idea that excess capital is a cushion to return.
- Oct 20, 2026 · Price 338.17
Weekly check-in: Weakened. Street trims JPM targets after Q3 miss; thesis legs unchanged since last check Little new has arrived since the Oct 13 print. What did arrive leans slightly negative for the capital and valuation legs, and the NII and card legs still hold. Per Yahoo Finance, Citigroup cut its target from $360 to $350 on Oct 15, and Investing.com reported Phillip Securities also lowered its target on an earnings cut. The shares have recovered to about $338, roughly 3% above the pre-earnings close of $334.30, so the post-miss price action has not added a new problem.
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