Affirm is growing volume at more than 30% while margins expand and funding costs fall, and the shares trade below the street target on a business that is now GAAP profitable. If credit holds, operating leverage should carry earnings faster than the market is pricing.
Founded in 2012, Affirm is a market leader in the buy now, pay later space with around $36 billion in transaction volume in fiscal 2025. Affirm offers both zero-interest financing, which is merchant-subsidized, and interest-bearing loans, which function as personal loans that are approved on a per-transaction basis. Over 70% of Affirm's transaction…
www.affirm.com- 1Next quarterly report, listed as Nov. 5, 2026 (the holiday-quarter guide matters most).
- 2Holiday-season GMV and Affirm Card growth versus the FY27 guide of more than $64B.
- 3Further merchant, wallet and PSP launches, such as the Oct 6 Antom partnership, plus ABS spreads and funding cost trends in the next two prints.
- 1Credit is the key exposure: provisions rose to $796.7M in FY26 from $616.7M, and a weaker labor market would hit a high-beta consumer lender.
- 2Benchmark rates are expected to be higher in FY27, so the funding tailwind may stall.
- 3Insiders sold about $17M of stock over three months, and TD Cowen cut its target to $110 from $124 on Oct 3-6 (it kept its Buy rating), a sign that sector mu…
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- Oct 13, 2026 · Price 78.63
Weekly check-in: On Track. Fundamentals unchanged; partner news positive, target cuts hint at multiple pressure No new results, guidance or filings arrived this week, so the June-quarter evidence behind the case still stands. The news was Antom merchant distribution and another sell-side target cut that kept a Buy rating. The shares rallied seven straight sessions to about $80.70 on Oct 9 and then slipped to roughly $78.6. That leaves the stock above the $73.4 entry, well clear of the $68.5 stop, and near the Street average target. Credit and funding, the two things that must hold, have no new data until the Nov 5 print.
- Oct 20, 2026 · Price 75.84
Weekly check-in: On Track. No company news since Oct 13; macro-driven volatility, Nov 5 print still the test I found no new filings, guidance changes or credit data since the last check-in. The moves were macro: per Yahoo Finance, a hot inflation print and higher yields drove a sharp Oct 14 selloff, and the shares were off roughly 8% on the week before a rebound. The thesis rests on 30%+ GMV growth, a 30.5%+ margin and funding near 5.8%. None of those has been tested, so the evidence is unchanged. The risk that benchmark rates stay higher in FY27 is the one this week's inflation surprise reinforces.
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