Investment Case · Oct 13, 2026

Active

$FCX

SHORT

Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. · NYSE

Priced For Perfect Copper And Grasberg

RResearch Desk @research_desk Editorial Verified25 cases · 17% hit · -0.8% avgConviction 3/5 Into Q3 earnings (Oct 27) and Q4 results in Jan 2027, roughly 3-4 months

Thesis

FCX trades near record highs on a copper price propped up by US tariff stockpiling and a flawless Grasberg ramp. A looser copper market or another Indonesia slip would compress both the commodity and the multiple.

Performance Since Publication

In the thesis direction

Short Return

+4.3%

At Publication

$69.62

Last

$66.60

Stock -4.3%

To Target

-3.9%

Company Snapshot

Freeport-McMoran Inc.

Metal Mining

Large Cap

Market Cap

$95.6B

P/E (TTM)

—

Dividend Yield

—

Beta

—

Avg Volume

—

200-Day Avg

—

Next Earnings

—

Employees

29.0K

Freeport-McMoRan owns stakes in 10 copper mines, led by its 49% ownership of the Grasberg copper and gold operations in Indonesia, 56% of the Cerro Verde mine in Peru, and 72% of Morenci in Arizona. It sold around 1.1 million metric tons of copper (its share) in 2025, making it one of the world's largest copper miners by volume. It also sold about…

www.fcx.com

Price Levels

Entry

$73.00

Price Target

$64.00

Stop

$78.75

Catalysts

1Q3 2026 earnings, expected Oct 27 (per StockAnalysis, date to confirm), for H2 volume delivery and 2027 capex and cost commentary.
2A fade in US copper stockpiling or tariff clarity on refined copper that lets Comex stocks unwind and lifts the copper supply picture.
3Grasberg ramp or Indonesia operating-license extension news before year-end, where any water, ramp or export-term slip hits guidance.

Key Risks

1Copper supply is tight, with the Antofagasta Centinela strike and Chilean disruptions, and China import demand is at a four-year high (per Reuters), so coppe…
2FCX has beaten EPS estimates for several quarters and the Grasberg ramp is on or ahead of plan, with June output at 69,000 tons a day.
3Sell-side sentiment is bullish (Citi target $84, finviz mean target about $80), and structural AI, grid and EV demand supports dips.

Read the Full Thesis

The market is paying for sustained high copper and a clean Grasberg recovery. LME copper settled near $14,540 a ton on Oct 9 (per Reuters), and Comex stocks are at a record 711,609 tons from tariff-driven buying. Morgan Stanley itself notes that a slowdown in US stockpiling could make the market feel looser. China, about 60% of demand (per J.P. Morgan), is the swing variable, and high prices have already caused demand pauses. Q2 was a beat: adjusted EPS of $0.74 versus about $0.59 expected, on revenue of $7.03 billion (per the Q2 release and Investing.com). The shares still fell on higher capex and project timing. Unit costs are guided to about $1.9 per pound, with energy and input inflation offset only by by-product credits. The Bagdad expansion budget was raised for labor escalation (per the Q2 call summary). Grasberg is only about 65% of capacity in H2 2026, with near-full rates not until end-2027 (per the Q2 call). H2 guidance needs copper sales more than 20% above H1, so there is little room for a miss, and Indonesia export and royalty terms remain a policy risk. At about 18.8x forward earnings (per CNBC) at a cyclical-high copper price, the stock needs copper to hold and Grasberg to execute. What has to be true for the short: copper mean-reverts as US stock building fades, or Grasberg or Indonesia disappoints.

Updates Since Publication

Oct 13, 2026 · Price 71.82
Weekly check-in: Weakened. Grasberg on plan, copper supply scares persist; short's catalysts leaning against it Nothing in the past week broke the copper or Grasberg pillars of the thesis, and most of the news cut against it. Per the Oct 2 operational update, Grasberg is tracking plan, Q3 copper sales are in line, and the smelter has restarted. Copper is holding near records on supply disruptions, and several brokers raised targets. The one point in the short's favor is a cost slip, and that depends on the Oct 27 print.
Oct 20, 2026 · Price 69.03
Weekly check-in: On Track. Chilean strike ends and copper slips; Grasberg still on plan before Oct 27 Since the last check-in, one of the thesis's main risks has weakened. Per Reuters on Oct 19, the Antofagasta Centinela strike ended and LME stocks rose to a two-month high. Three-month copper fell 0.4% to $14,342, below the $14,540 settle the case cites for Oct 9 and about 3.6% under the Sept 10 record of $14,875. Grasberg is still tracking the plan, so the operating-slip leg of the short has not yet shown up. The next real test is Q3 earnings, now confirmed for Oct 27.

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Investment case published by @research_desk. It reflects the author’s own views at the time of publication and is for information only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Prices and company data are delayed and may be inaccurate. User content is not verified. Editorial cases are written by our research desk with AI research assistance and reviewed by the team. · How we measure performance